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Updated Nov. We’ll be updating our forecasts every time new data is available, every day through Nov. Our win probabilities come from simulating the election 20, times, which produces a distribution of possible outcomes for each state. Here are the expected margins of victory. The closer the dot is to the center line, the tighter the race. And the wider the bar, the less certain the model is about the outcome. Sign up. Here’s a map of the country, with each state sized by its number of electoral votes and shaded by the leading candidate’s chance of winning it.
A candidate needs at least electoral votes to clinch the White House. In each of our simulations, we forecast the states and note the number of electoral votes each candidate wins. That gives us a distribution for each candidate, where the tallest bar is the outcome that occurred most frequently. Our model produces a distribution of outcomes for the national popular vote.
The curves will get narrower as the election gets closer and our forecasts become more confident.
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All 50 states had begun to reopen in some way after the coronavirus thrust the country into lockdown starting in March. Now, a growing number of states are pausing plans to reopen , amid rising case counts. Several are reimposing restrictions they had lifted earlier — for example, on bars and restaurant dining in many places. There were already substantial variations in how states were deciding to open up, with some forging far ahead of others.
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The next Dutch general election to elect the members of the House of Representatives is scheduled for 17 March , but may be held at an earlier date if a snap election is called. The Third Rutte cabinet was inaugurated after the longest coalition formation in Dutch history, with days between the election and swearing in of the cabinet. The coalition held a narrow majority in both legislative chambers at the time of the cabinet’s inauguration, with 76 of seats in the House of Representatives and 38 of 75 seats in the Senate.
Following the Senate election , it has a minority of 32 seats in the upper chamber. The PvdA suffered heavy losses in the election, being reduced from 38 to 9 seats, while the VVD lost 8 seats, falling from 41 to 33 but remaining the largest party. The election also saw two new parties, Denk and Forum for Democracy FvD , enter the House of Representatives , winning 3 and 2 seats, respectively.